How to forecast demand for a DTC brand
A practical method you can run without a data scientist — and how to turn the forecast into orders.
Step 1 — Start from per-SKU velocity
Use recent units sold per week per SKU as your base signal — not a blended catalog average. Velocity is the honest starting point because it reflects what customers actually buy.
Step 2 — Adjust for seasonality and promos
Layer in known seasonality and planned promotions. A hero SKU during a seasonal peak or a creator push will run well above its baseline velocity; plan for it or you'll sell out.
Step 3 — Add every channel
DTC isn't the whole story. Add Amazon and wholesale demand so your total demand — and the finished goods it consumes — is complete. Channels share inventory; forecast them together.
Step 4 — Convert to a plan
Express demand as weekly units, compare to weeks-on-hand coverage, and generate reorders that respect lead times and MOQs. See how SpyGlass forecasts →
Frequently asked questions
What's the simplest way to forecast DTC demand?
How far ahead should I forecast?
Do I need special software?
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